Research shows that lack of intergenerational mobility in Latin America is related to migration aspirations and protests
UAB economists Xavier Ramos and Riccardo Turati, and UB economist Maria Marino, have published a study in the academic journal World Bank Economic Review which establishes that people with a lower level of education than their parents are more likely to want to emigrate and to take part in protests. Nonethless, the study also observes that people who tend to trust their country's government or political parties more, or who believe the economy will grow, do not usually express a desire to migrate or protest, regardless of the difference in educational level with their parents.
Recent years of economic instability, together with technological developments whose redistributive effects on the population have yet to fully unfold, underscore that inequality, both across individuals and generations, remains a defining feature of our world. Latin America and Africa are the most unequal regions globally, where many young people are likely to achieve worse economic or social conditions than their parents.
This lack of intergenerational mobility is not without consequence: it can fuel a desire for change among those with the bleakest prospects. A study recently published in the World Bank Economic Review shows that this lack of opportunity is indeed linked to a desire for change, either through participation in protests, or by seeking better opportunities abroad through emigration.
The study's authors, Xavier Ramos and Riccardo Turati from the Department of Applied Economics (UAB), and Maria Marino from the Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics (UB), examined the relationship between intergenerational mobility, migration aspirations, and participation in political protests, drawing on individual-level data from 18 Latin American countries collected between 2002 and 2023.
To measure intergenerational mobility, they compared the educational attainment of respondents with that of their parents, classifying respondents as having negative (positive) mobility if their educational attainment was lower (higher) than their parents'. Notably, 14.5% of respondents had a lower level of education than their parents, a strikingly high share, as compulsory education has expanded across generations.
The results show that intergenerational mobility is related to both migration aspirations and protest participation: individuals experiencing negative mobility are more likely to want to emigrate and to protest, and the two choices are empirically linked. These findings echo Hirschman's (“Exit, Voice and Loyalty”, 1970) framework, which suggests that individuals facing unfavourable conditions are more likely to either voice their discontent (protest) or exit (migrate from) the institution, in this case their home country. This study shows that a lack of intergenerational progress, which is a very unfavourable condition, is associated with these types of behaviours.
However, respondents' trust in institutions and their outlook on future economic prospects play a particularly important role in shaping this relationship: individuals who trust their country's political institutions (government or political parties), or who believe the economy will grow, are unlikely to express a desire to migrate or protest, regardless of their intergenerational mobility.
This research shows that the lack of opportunity, and the struggle to progress across generations, is among the main forces behind this desire for change. While addressing these deep-rooted causes remains essential, doing so takes time and resources. Restoring people's faith in institutions and in their country's economic future may offer a more immediate path toward reviving hope for a better life at home.
The UAB, with Sustainable Development Goals
Reduced inequalities