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It is common to think of university trajectories as a highway toward obtaining a degree: the student enrols, studies, and graduates. However, students’ paths, progress, and difficulties are far more diverse and complex, with curves, ascents, and descents. In this uneven terrain, science, technology, engineering, and mathematics programmes (known as STEM) are the most demanding.

This is shown by our recent study of more than 30,000 Catalan university students. In all academic fields there are students who fail or drop out, but STEM concentrates a higher percentage of irregular trajectories. Even among students with high entry grades, the probability of encountering obstacles is greater than in other areas.

The trajectory models used in the study identify four main profiles: dropout (early, slow, or late), slow progression, recovery, and optimal trajectory.

Graph of performance trajectories of students in STEM programmes over 7 observed years.
Note: Group labels: G1: Early dropout; G2: Slow dropout; G3: Intermediate; G4: Good performance and improvement; G5: Late dropout; G6: Better performance and stable
 
If in other areas—such as social sciences, health, or the humanities—optimal trajectories (stable or high-performing) are considerably more frequent (43.7 % overall versus 28.4 % in STEM), in STEM it is more common to find students who start out with difficulties but manage to recover (27 % overall versus 33.7 % in STEM).

Those who recover from a poor initial performance: young people, children of university-educated parents, and women

When analysing who belongs to this recovery trajectory, three clear patterns emerge. Firstly, age. Younger students are more likely to overcome a poor start (in engineering, 25 percentage points more than those over 25). By contrast, those who enter university later often have less room to repeat courses or extend their studies, so a weak beginning carries greater weight in leading to dropout.

Secondly, family background. Students whose parents have university education tend to improve more frequently (in engineering, approximately 15 percentage points more). Prior knowledge of the academic world and the availability of cultural and material resources help provide second chances (for example, by changing degree programmes) and support persistence within the system until a path of progress is found.

Finally, gender. Women predominate in the optimal trajectory across all fields (12 percentage points more than men); this also holds in STEM (8 percentage points more), where, in addition, when they encounter poor results in the first year, they drop out less and recover more often than men (approximately 20 percentage points more among female students who have passed at most 30 % of first-year credits).

Women in STEM: Few in number, strong in resolve

International studies often indicate that women leave science, engineering, and mathematics programmes more frequently than men. However, as our study shows, the Catalan case (as other research has shown for Spain as a whole) breaks with this trend. Here, those who enter are few, as in the rest of the world, but they persist, recover more often, and graduate in a higher proportion.

The reasons may be varied: strong motivation linked to the good labour-market prospects of these degrees, a well-defined vocation that has led them to choose a path made even more challenging by its male-dominated nature, or the family and institutional support they receive.

In conclusion, the analysis of university trajectories reveals a university system far more diverse than is often assumed. And it is important to bear in mind that, while it is true that not all complex trajectories lead to dropout, students’ social characteristics also play a role in their capacity to change course after a difficult start. Understanding these trajectories is essential for designing more accurate and equitable policies in the future.