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Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA‑UAB)

Do opinions about economic growth influence climate policies? New ERC Advanced Grant

30 Mar 2023
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Do different opinions about the relationships between economic growth and the environment influence the social-political support for serious climate policy? A new project "Climate Policy versus Economic Growth: Views, Models and Innovative Strategies" (CLIMGROW) aims to find an answer to this question.

JEROEN VAN DEN BERGH

The project, led by ICTA-UAB economist Jeroen van den Bergh, has received an Advanced  Grant from the European Research Council (ERC). The motivation for it is that while climate change has revived the debate on limits-to-growth, current research on support for climate policy neglects this debate and associated opinion dynamics.

The project will study to what extent concerns about economic growth, ranging from pro- to anti-growth, hamper social-political support for ambitious climate policy, and how this can be amended.

Using surveys, experiments and interviews, it will firstly assess whether beliefs about growth versus environment affect the opinions stakeholders (voters, advisers, NGOs, etc.) have about climate policy, and whether this is moderated by their preferences regarding specific policy instruments, such as standards or subsidies. The project further will test the role of information by comparing the communicative appeal of, and political judgement under, distinct beyond-GDP metrics. In addition, it will explore how growth concerns have affected the design of pledges in the Paris Agreement, given that these demarcate national climate policies.

 Based on the data and insights collected, the second part of the project will undertake system dynamics and agent-based modelling to study co-dynamics of climate-policy design and support. The result will be a model of the "policy-support cycle", comprising policy design, economic and emissions impacts, opinion dynamics (support/resistance) and policy adaptation. To this end, growth strategies and climate policies will be compared under distinct beyond-GDP metrics, in turn translating into consequences for stakeholder opinion dynamics. This will allow assessing which dynamic policy paths can count on stable and sufficient support under diverse economic and climate scenarios.

 Based on the results, the project will explore whether an “agrowth” strategy can increase support for ambitious climate policy. Agrowth reflects indifference about GDP patterns, motivated by GDP but not measuring genuine progress.

Given stakeholder diversity, interviews will be performed to formulate tailored strategies in this regard. Proposals similar to agrowth, notably under the label of “post-growth”, will be examined as well.

 

 

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