Activitats i Seminaris organitzats pel Departament de Telecomunicació i Enginyeria de Sistemes dintre del programa de Doctorat en Enginyeria Electrònica i de Telecomunicació | ||||||||||
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![]() ![]() ![]() Data: 20 de setembre de 2019 Hora: 12:00 hores Lloc: Aula Q1/1007 de l'Escola d'Enginyeria Títol: "Advances in Multiscale modeling and control of infectious diseases" Ponent: Esteban Vargas, Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies. Us avancem un petit resum de la conferència: "Infectious diseases are persistent threats to humankind - killing annually 16 million people worldwide. The spred of pathogens between infectious and susceptible hosts remains a central vexation for science as it involves several complex and dynamic processes. The link between the infection dynamics within an infected host and the susceptible population-level transmission is widely acknowledged. However, several technical aspects of the interface of within and between-host scales are still in their infancy. In this talk, we presenta a formal mathemational derivation of the reporductive number between host as an increasing function of the reproductive number within host. Numerical analyses reveal that a Michaelis-Menten form of virus dependent transmission is more likely to recapitulate the behavior between the two scales than a form directly proportional to the patogen. On a computional level, a static network model that embodies age-specific human contact patterns in Europe and a within-host viral infection model can be coupled to forecast "what if" scenarios. Considering Ebola virus infection as an example, multiscale simulation results uncovered that in order to have a protective antibody level, vaccination would need to be delivered from one week to four months before the exposure to Ebola virus. The use of multiscale modeling is thus a promising tool to provide early and data-driven evaluations of vaccination strategies-possibly also for newly emerging or re-emerging pathogens." |
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